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Bob retires and begins taking out a safe 4% of his $300,000 in savings every year in retirement. The recession lasts three years. What happened to Bob? At the end of the recession, Bob’s net worth has declined to $281,403, a loss of 6 percent.
Ed is more than stung, he is despondent, finally weary and bleary eyed from reading stock symbols in the Wall Street Journal. Ed pulls his retirement savings out of stocks, and puts his money and $1250 a months savings into a CD paying 3%, and enters the commute lane for yet another day. Five years later…
Eight years after Bob retired, Ed finally gets back his original $300,000, and decides to retire. Bob has been laying in a hammock for eight years, happily retired, and now has $364,000. So, what seemed like the common sense approach, of continuing to work and increasing savings, actually left Ed in a worse position than if he retired.
After the recession has ended, and the stock market finally begins rising again, Bob re-allocates his assets back into a standard retirement asset allocation model. He earns 9% a year on his investments. The expansion cycle lasts 5 years. Eight years after retiring, Bob has a net worth of $364,000 a 21% increase, even after taking out $1,000 every month
Bob says “I’m done! I’m taking my losses. Investing what’s left of my money in crappy government bonds. When the recession ends, I’ll move some of my money back into stocks and housing, but I’m not delaying my retirement because of a stupid recession!
The following is an example of two co-workers, with equal salaries and net worths, one decides to retire while his cubicle mate decides to keep working. Which person has the most savings, after a long and bitter recession, may surprise you.
Bob and Ed’s Semi-Excellent Retirement Adventure!
Recent losses in the stock and housing markets, and gloomy predictions of a prolonged recession, have caused many Americans to delay or cancel their retirements. If the recession lasts several years, as most economists are now predicting, then delaying your retirement, may not financially make any difference and might actually leave you worse off then if you retire right now
Meanwhile, on the other side of the cubicle wall….
It’s a recession, a world-wide slow down in growth, foreign stock markets get hit even harder than the U.S. markets. And Ed, no matter how hard he tries, still loses 15% a year during the recession. Starting with $300,000 and adding $1,250 per month, at the end of 3 years, Ed has a net worth of $226,709. Ed has lost 25% of his net worth.
Ed is freaking out! “I can’t retire now, not after my losses in the stock and housing markets, I have to keep working and increase my savings.” Ed had been saving $1,000 a month, towards his retirement, and increases it to $1,250. He reads personal finance magazines, watches financial t.v. shows, listens to financial radio gurus, subscribes to newsletters, chases high return stocks, mutual funds, global hedge funds, considers trading in options. And none of it works.
Both Bob and Ed, have taken recent losses because of the recession, and their net worth’s are now $300,000 each.
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